AN ECONOMIC OBSERVATORY
S&P 5007,743.41▲ +0.51%2026-09-25
Dow Jones51,828.62▲ +0.93%2026-09-25
Nasdaq Composite27,068.72▲ +0.48%2026-09-25
Nasdaq-10030,608.13▲ +0.42%2026-09-25
FTSE 10010,695.30▲ +0.14%2026-09-25
DAX25,408.64▲ +0.56%2026-09-25
Nikkei 22566,364.20▲ +1.30%2026-09-25
Hang Seng24,510.09▼ -1.01%2026-09-25
Nifty 5023,140.50▲ +0.34%2026-09-25
S&P/TSX Composite35,800.90▲ +0.26%2026-09-25
Connecting…Daily After-Close · On Open
As of 2026-08 · Revised History

Economic Conditions

US Conditions

11 inputs · 4 pillars
Mixed

Broadly steady +2.7 pts / 3M

100% weighted coverage
55%
36%

Global Leading Cycle

12 economies
Improving+5.1 rank points / 3 monthsHistorical Rank · Stronger cycle
76%
68%

What Changed This Week?

Latest completed week
2026-09-21 – 2026-09-25

Equities rose despite higher Treasury yields and wider credit spreads: 4 of 4 covered US indexes advanced, led by Nasdaq-100 (+3.25%) versus Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.28%).

Key developments Past 90 days

Selected context · Reviewed Sep 27, 2026

Policy

The Fed raises rates

The Fed increased its target range by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75–4.00%, citing elevated inflation alongside solid activity.

Why it matters

Higher policy rates can raise financing costs and the discount rates applied to earnings. Watch whether profit growth offsets that pressure.

Federal Reserve
Inflation

Energy lifts headline inflation

August CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Gasoline rose 3.9%, contributing over a third of the monthly increase.

Why it matters

Energy can squeeze consumer budgets and business margins even when underlying inflation is cooler. Distinguish fuel pressure from broad pricing persistence.

Bureau of Labor Statistics
Earnings

AI demand shows up in revenue

NVIDIA reported Q2 FY2027 revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year; Data Center revenue reached $89.0 billion.

Why it matters

The release supports the AI spending theme, but one company’s strength does not establish broad earnings improvement. Watch customer returns on that spending.

NVIDIA results

Release-date snapshots, newest first. “Why it matters” is Atlas interpretation. Selections are editorial, not a live news feed.

Research & Reference

Data health 96/126 within expected lag · 12 delayed · 8 stale · 10 unavailable · 116 snapshots

Observation freshness and retrieval success are separate. “Within expected lag” means the observation meets an estimated age limit, not that the provider confirms the newest release. A snapshot may still be recent. Open a source to check exact release timing.

10-year real Treasury yieldNo observation · dailyUnavailableRetrieved never
Real consumer spendingNo observation · monthlyUnavailableRetrieved never
Consumer prices2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:32 UTC
Core consumer prices2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:32 UTC
Core PCE prices2026-07-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:32 UTC
10-year breakeven2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:32 UTC
Real GDP growth2026-04-01 · quarterlyDelayed · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:32 UTC
Industrial production2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:32 UTC
Retail sales2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:32 UTC
Housing starts2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:32 UTC
Unemployment rate2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:32 UTC
Payroll change2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:32 UTC
Initial jobless claims2026-09-19 · weeklyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:33 UTC
Hourly wage growth2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:33 UTC
Effective fed funds rate2026-09-24 · dailyDelayed · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:33 UTC
10-year Treasury2026-09-24 · dailyDelayed · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:33 UTC
10Y minus 2Y spread2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:33 UTC
High-yield credit spread2026-09-24 · dailyDelayed · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:33 UTC
Broad US dollar2026-09-18 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:33 UTC
WTI crude oil2026-09-22 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:33 UTC
Equity volatility (VIX)2026-09-22 · dailyDelayed · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:33 UTC
Financial conditions2026-09-18 · weeklyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:01:33 UTC
Personal saving rate2026-07-01 · monthlyDelayed · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 22:20:27 UTC
Corporate profits2026-04-01 · quarterlyDelayed · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 22:23:06 UTC
Consumption contribution to GDPNo observation · quarterlyUnavailableRetrieved never
Investment contribution to GDPNo observation · quarterlyUnavailableRetrieved never
US commercial crude inventories2026-09-18 · weeklyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 22:17:02 UTC
US regular gasoline price2026-09-21 · weeklyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 22:17:57 UTC
Natural-gas storage2026-09-18 · weeklyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 22:17:57 UTC
US private credit / GDP2026-01-01 · quarterlyStale · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 03:01:30 UTC
China private credit / GDP2026-01-01 · quarterlyStale · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 03:01:30 UTC
Euro area private credit / GDP2026-01-01 · quarterlyStale · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 03:01:30 UTC
US debt-service ratio2026-01-01 · quarterlyStale · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 03:01:30 UTC
UK debt-service ratio2026-01-01 · quarterlyStale · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 03:01:30 UTC
Japan debt-service ratio2026-01-01 · quarterlyStale · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 03:01:30 UTC
Bank lending standards2026-07-01 · quarterlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:14 UTC
Business loan demand2026-07-01 · quarterlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:15 UTC
Investment-grade credit spread2026-09-24 · dailyDelayed · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:14 UTC
Real disposable income2026-07-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:14 UTC
Real income excluding transfers2026-07-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:15 UTC
Credit-card delinquencies2026-04-01 · quarterlyDelayed · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:15 UTC
Prime-age employment ratio2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:15 UTC
Sahm recession indicator2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:15 UTC
Headline PCE inflation2026-07-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:15 UTC
Core CPI · 3-month momentum2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:16 UTC
Core CPI · 6-month momentum2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:16 UTC
Core PCE · 3-month momentum2026-07-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:16 UTC
Core PCE · 6-month momentum2026-07-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:16 UTC
Shelter inflation2025-09-01 · monthlyStale · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:15 UTC
Services inflation excluding rent2025-09-01 · monthlyStale · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:15 UTC
30-year mortgage rate2026-09-24 · weeklyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:15 UTC
Building permits2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:15 UTC
Existing-home sales2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:16 UTC
Federal budget balance2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:16 UTC
Federal interest expense2026-04-01 · quarterlyDelayed · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:16 UTC
Bank reserve balances2026-09-23 · weeklyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:16 UTC
Treasury cash balance2026-09-23 · weeklyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:16 UTC
Overnight reverse repos2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:16 UTC
Federal Reserve assets2026-09-23 · weeklyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:16 UTC
Copper price2026-07-01 · monthlyDelayed · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:14:16 UTC
Auto-loan delinquencies2026-06-30 · quarterlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:51:13 UTC
World trade volume2026-07-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:51:13 UTC
Treasury gross auction issuance2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:51:13 UTC
Supply-chain pressure2026-08-31 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:13:22 UTC
Forward earnings growthNo observation · monthlyUnavailableRetrieved never
Earnings revisionsNo observation · monthlyUnavailableRetrieved never
Forward P/ENo observation · monthlyUnavailableRetrieved never
Index profit marginsNo observation · quarterlyUnavailableRetrieved never
Global manufacturing PMINo observation · monthlyUnavailableRetrieved never
Global services PMINo observation · monthlyUnavailableRetrieved never
S&P 5002026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:49:05 UTC
Dow Jones Industrial Average2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:49:05 UTC
Nasdaq Composite2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:49:05 UTC
Nasdaq-1002026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 03:49:05 UTC
FTSE 1002026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 13:00:58 UTC
DAX2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 13:00:58 UTC
Nikkei 2252026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 13:00:58 UTC
Hang Seng2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 13:00:58 UTC
Nifty 502026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 13:00:58 UTC
S&P/TSX Composite2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 13:00:58 UTC
Russell 20002026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:12:47 UTC
S&P 500 Equal Weight · RSP2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:12:47 UTC
S&P 500 · SPY comparison2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:12:47 UTC
Global equities · ACWI2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:12:48 UTC
Developed ex-US · VEA2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:12:48 UTC
Emerging markets · VWO2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:12:48 UTC
US Treasuries · IEF2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:12:49 UTC
Investment-grade bonds · LQD2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:12:48 UTC
High-yield bonds · HYG2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:12:48 UTC
Gold · GLD2026-09-25 · dailyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-27 20:12:49 UTC
US score · Real consumer spending2026-07-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
US score · Real income excluding transfers2026-07-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
US score · Industrial production2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
US score · Real GDP2026-04-01 · quarterlyDelayed · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
US score · Payroll growth2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
US score · Unemployment rate2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
US score · Prime-age employment2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
US score · Claims relative to labor force2026-09-19 · weeklyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
US score · Headline PCE inflation2026-07-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
US score · Core PCE momentum2026-07-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
US score · Broad financial conditions2026-09-18 · weeklyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
Global cycle · United States2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
Global cycle · Canada2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
Global cycle · United Kingdom2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
Global cycle · Germany2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
Global cycle · France2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
Global cycle · Italy2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
Global cycle · Japan2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
Global cycle · China2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
Global cycle · India2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
Global cycle · Brazil2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
Global cycle · Mexico2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
Global cycle · South Korea2026-08-01 · monthlyWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
GDP weight · USA2025-12-31 · annualWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
GDP weight · CAN2025-12-31 · annualWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
GDP weight · GBR2025-12-31 · annualWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
GDP weight · DEU2025-12-31 · annualWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
GDP weight · FRA2025-12-31 · annualWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
GDP weight · ITA2025-12-31 · annualWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
GDP weight · JPN2025-12-31 · annualWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
GDP weight · CHN2025-12-31 · annualWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
GDP weight · IND2025-12-31 · annualWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
GDP weight · BRA2025-12-31 · annualWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
GDP weight · MEX2025-12-31 · annualWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
GDP weight · KOR2025-12-31 · annualWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC
GDP weight · WLD2025-12-31 · annualWithin expected lag · SnapshotRetrieved 2026-09-26 04:25:04 UTC